PENYUSUNAN MODEL KUANTITATIF SISTEM DINAMIK MENGGUNAKAN SOFTWARE Stella® PADA USAHA PETERNAKAN SAPI POTONG

Novie Andri Setianto, Nunung Noor Hidayat, Pambudi Yuwono

Abstract


Pemodelan membuka peluang yang lebih besar dalam upaya untuk mempelajari sistem usaha peternakan sapi potong. Pemodelan dapat digunakan sebagai basis dalam menduga performa dari intervensi strategi untuk meningkatkan kinerja sistem. Usaha peternakan sapi potong merupakan sistem yang kompleks sehingga dibutuhkan pendekatan sistemik untuk dapat mengkaji sistem tersebut secara komprehensif. Artikel ini menggambarkan prosedur untuk membuat pemodelan kuantitatif yang berbasis pada diagram stock and flow menggunakan software Stella®. Model yang dibangun berdasarkan pada survey yang dilakukan pada peternak sapi potong di Kabupaten Banjarnegara. Serangkaian diskusi dan workshop sudah dilaksanakan selama tiga tahun dalam upaya untuk mengembangkan protokol pemodelan standar usaha peternakan sapi potong skala kecil. Studi menunjukkan bahwa pegembangan pemodelan dinamik sebaiknya diawali dengan menyusun pemodelan secara kualitatif agar dapat mengelaborasi aspek sub sistem dalam model. Struktur model yang dibangun harus berdasarkan pada sekurang-kurangnya tiga aspek, yakni motivasi, kontrol terhadap sumberdaya yang dimiliki serta pengetahuan yang dimiliki peternak. Detil protocol pemodelan disajikan dalam makalah ini, termasuk didalamnya model kuantitatif yang dihasilkan.

Kata kunci: peternakan sapi potong, peternak kecil, model dinamik, pemikiran sistemik, stock and flow

 

Modeling expand the possibilities to study and predict the existing behaviour of the system and learn the outcome of certain intervention strategies. Beef farming is a complex system which requires systems thinking to study its behaviour. This article describes the procedures to develop a dynamic quantitative modelling based on Stock and Flow diagram using Stella® software. The model was developed based on the study on beef cattle farming system in Kabupaten Banjarnegara. A series of discussion and workshops have been conducted in three years to study the behaviour of the system in a quest to develop a standard modelling protocol for smallholders and define the intervention strategy based on the model. Study revealed that developing a dynamic quantitative model need to be initiated by building a qualitative model from which could be further translated into stock and flow diagram for quantitative modelling purposes. Then, structure of the model should be developed based on three aspects; motivation, control of the resources, and farmers knowledge. The protocol of the procedures were discussed in this article, and the dynamic model of beef cattle farming were presented.

Key words: beef farming, smallholders, dynamic model, system thinking, stock and flow


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References


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